Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Friars @ Nittany Lions PROV @ PSU

PROVIDENCE

FRIARSPROV

4-2  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 4:00 PM ET
Mohegan Sun Arena
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

5-1  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
FRIARS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Penn State)
FriarsPROV (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Friars Cover

1.8%

Nittany Lions Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

PROV By 1-7 points

1.4%

PROV By 8-14 points

0.2%

PSU By 1-7 points

6.8%

PSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
49
PROVIDENCE
70
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
68
PROVIDENCE
72
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 PROV @ PSU 77 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Penn State: 8.0 vs Providence: 7.0
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Penn State: 53.0% vs Providence: 50.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Penn State: 36.2% vs Providence: 33.9%
Blocks (L5) +74.3% more
Providence: 4.8 vs Penn State: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PROV Score 49.0 77
PSU Score 70.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 33.9 33.0 / 18.0
Assists 15.2 / 17.3 12.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.2 / 4.8 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 53.0 / 50.1 33.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 74.0 81.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 39.8 43.0 / 45.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.0 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 10.9 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: +0.1
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
PROV
PSU
PROV
ML
72% 23-9
59% 19-13
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
ATS
72% 23-9
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
TTL
66% 21-11
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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