Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Lancers GRAM @ CBU

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

3-2  |  Road

59
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

4-0  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
LANCERS
100%
TIGERS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Grambling)
TigersGRAM (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

99.9%

Lancers Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GRAM -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

GRAM By 1-7 points

0.6%

GRAM By 8-14 points

3.3%

CBU By 1-7 points

0.1%

CBU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
79
GRAMBLING
47
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
67
GRAMBLING
74
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 GRAM @ CBU 59 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.1% more
Grambling: 4.4 vs California Baptist: 2.3
Turnovers (L5) +28.9% more
Grambling: 15.6 vs California Baptist: 11.1
Assists (L5) +18.6% more
Grambling: 12.3 vs California Baptist: 10.0
Steals (L5) +13.8% more
Grambling: 8.7 vs California Baptist: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 79.0 59
CBU Score 47.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.9 / 31.3 43.0 / 22.0
Assists 10.0 / 12.3 14.0 / 3.0
Blocks 2.3 / 4.4 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 45.3 59.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 68.8 71.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 32.9 32.0 / 20.0
Steals 7.5 / 8.7 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 15.6 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
GRAM
CBU
GRAM
ML
50% 17-17
68% 21-10
76% 25-8
68% 17-8
ATS
53% 18-16
61% 19-12
76% 25-8
68% 17-8
TTL
47% 16-18
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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