MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
10-5 | Road
113
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
9-6 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
0.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
1.7%
PHX By 1-7 points
0.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
110
MINNESOTA
Phoenix
75
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Minnesota
110
MINNESOTA
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.5% more
Minnesota: 4.9
vs
Phoenix: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
Minnesota: 26.7
vs
Phoenix: 24.1
Rebounding (L5)
+9.3% more
Minnesota: 48.8
vs
Phoenix: 44.3
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
Phoenix: 15.5
vs
Minnesota: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
110.0
113
PHX Score
75.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 33.6
45.0 / 32.0
Assists
24.1 / 26.7
25.0 / 18.0
Blocks
4.0 / 4.9
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 46.9
48.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
84.1 / 75.8
76.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
44.3 / 48.8
45.0 / 37.0
Steals
12.4 / 11.2
13.0 / 17.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 13.4
28.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIN
PHX
MIN
ML
57%
60-45
54%
63-53
51%
45-43
54%
50-43
ATS
58%
59-43-3
58%
67-49
51%
45-43
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
61-42-2
63%
72-43-1
100%
88-0
100%
93-0
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