LAFAYETTE
LEOPARDSLAF
1-5 | Road
70
STONEHILL
SKYHAWKSSTO
2-5 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
LEOPARDS
0%
SKYHAWKS
100%
LEOPARDS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
LAFAYETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Lafayette)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAF -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAF)
LAF By 1-7 points
2.2%
LAF By 8-14 points
8.0%
STO By 1-7 points
0.3%
STO By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Lafayette
77
LAFAYETTE
Stonehill
50
STONEHILL
Simulated Score
Lafayette
66
LAFAYETTE
Stonehill
71
STONEHILL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Leopards
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Skyhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Leopards (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Skyhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
LAF @ STO
70 - 74
Dec 29, 2024
STO @ LAF
70 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.1% more
Lafayette: 5.4
vs
Stonehill: 3.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.7%
Lafayette: 69.4%
vs
Stonehill: 63.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
Lafayette: 35.6%
vs
Stonehill: 33.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+20.8% more
Stonehill: 16.7
vs
Lafayette: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAF Score
77.0
70
STO Score
50.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 35.6
33.0 / 35.0
Assists
14.4 / 14.2
8.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.3 / 2.1
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 42.4
48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
63.7 / 69.4
59.0 / 66.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 30.6
38.0 / 39.0
Steals
3.2 / 5.4
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 13.9
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
STO
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
STO
Advantage
14-15-2
(48.3%)
Margin: -2.2
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
STO
11-20-0
O: 35.5% / U: 64.5%
Total +/-: -4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STO
LAF
STO
LAF
ML
45%
15-18
53%
17-15
70%
23-10
59%
19-13
ATS
39%
13-20
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
59%
19-13
TTL
55%
18-15
50%
16-16
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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