Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Tigers OMA @ LSU

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

2-4  |  Road

73
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 8:00 PM ET
Pete Maravich Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LSU

TIGERSLSU

5-0  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (LSU)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 TigersLSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

0.0%

Tigers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LSU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

OMA By 1-7 points

0.0%

OMA By 8-14 points

0.0%

LSU By 1-7 points

0.3%

LSU By 8-14 points

1.7%

AI Model Projected Score
54
OMAHA
89
LSU
Simulated Score
62
OMAHA
78
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 OMA @ LSU 73 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +126.8% more
LSU: 3.6 vs Omaha: 1.6
Rebounding (L5) +30.6% more
LSU: 42.1 vs Omaha: 32.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
LSU: 11.9 vs Omaha: 10.2
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
LSU: 51.7% vs Omaha: 48.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 54.0 73
LSU Score 89.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.0 / 40.3 45.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.9 / 14.9 21.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 48.6 52.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 80.8 75.0 / 48.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 32.3 43.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.4 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.2 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
OMA
LSU
OMA
ML
62% 20-12
79% 26-7
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
ATS
66% 21-11
76% 25-8
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
TTL
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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