Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pioneers @ Rams DEN @ CSU

DENVER

PIONEERSDEN

2-3  |  Road

83
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

4-1  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
PIONEERS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
PIONEERS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Colorado State)
PioneersDEN (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pioneers Cover

0.0%

Rams Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSU -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

DEN By 1-7 points

0.0%

DEN By 8-14 points

0.0%

CSU By 1-7 points

0.2%

CSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
53
DENVER
89
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
65
DENVER
78
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (-17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Rams (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 DEN @ CSU 83 - 81
Nov 12, 2024 DEN @ CSU 65 - 74
Dec 6, 2023 DEN @ CSU 80 - 90
Nov 5, 2019 DEN @ CSU 63 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +69.8% more
Colorado State: 19.5 vs Denver: 11.5
Rebounding (L5) +20.7% more
Colorado State: 36.6 vs Denver: 30.3
Free Throw % (L5) +10.1%
Colorado State: 85.6% vs Denver: 75.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Colorado State: 43.6% vs Denver: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 53.0 83
CSU Score 89.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.6 / 39.9 44.0 / 48.0
Assists 19.5 / 11.5 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.2 / 2.6 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 47.1 49.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 85.6 / 75.5 80.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 30.3 33.0 / 22.0
Steals 4.0 / 4.3 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 11.8 11.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
2%MONEY98%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
17-11-1 (60.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
CSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
20-8-1
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.0
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
DEN
CSU
DEN
ML
56% 19-15
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
ATS
62% 21-13
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
59% 19-13
TTL
56% 19-15
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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