MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
1-4 | Road
78
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
1-4 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
100%
BEACH
0%
BOBCATS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Long Beach State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LBSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
MTST By 1-7 points
5.8%
MTST By 8-14 points
1.4%
LBSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
LBSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Montana State
52
MONTANA STATE
Long Beach State
66
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
Montana State
74
MONTANA STATE
Long Beach State
78
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beach
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
MTST @ LBSU
78 - 72
Nov 26, 2023
LBSU @ MTST
75 - 69
Nov 13, 2022
MTST @ LBSU
70 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+18.9% more
Long Beach State: 38.0
vs
Montana State: 31.9
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
Long Beach State: 12.2
vs
Montana State: 10.5
Steals (L5)
+12.6% more
Long Beach State: 8.0
vs
Montana State: 7.1
Blocks (L5)
+46.6% more
Montana State: 3.8
vs
Long Beach State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTST Score
52.0
78
LBSU Score
66.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 37.9
36.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.2 / 12.6
6.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.0 / 3.8
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 50.6
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
66.6 / 69.2
76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 31.9
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.1
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 10.5
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
LBSU
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
MTST
LBSU
MTST
ML
55%
17-14
52%
16-15
65%
20-11
67%
20-10
ATS
68%
21-10
52%
16-15
65%
20-11
67%
20-10
TTL
61%
19-12
65%
20-11
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
