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SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

3-3  |  Road

67
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

4-1  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
HORNETS --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (California)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

2.3%

Golden Bears Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

SAC By 1-7 points

1.7%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.3%

CAL By 1-7 points

8.0%

CAL By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
58
SACRAMENTO STATE
78
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
65
SACRAMENTO STATE
78
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 SAC @ CAL 67 - 91
Nov 24, 2024 SAC @ CAL 77 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
California: 14.5 vs Sacramento State: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.2%
California: 36.6% vs Sacramento State: 25.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +10.1%
California: 49.0% vs Sacramento State: 38.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
California: 72.1% vs Sacramento State: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 58.0 67
CAL Score 78.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 25.4 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.5 / 12.5 20.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.2 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 38.9 51.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 69.9 53.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 35.9 42.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.6 / 5.8 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 14.0 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
99%MONEY1%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
SAC
CAL
SAC
ML
61% 20-13
57% 17-13
77% 24-7
87% 26-4
ATS
64% 21-12
73% 22-8
78% 25-7
87% 27-4
TTL
70% 23-10
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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