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MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

2-3  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Freedom Hall (TN)
View Odds Details →

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

3-1  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
EAGLES --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (East Tennessee State)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersETSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

38.2%

Buccaneers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

MORE By 1-7 points

21.6%

MORE By 8-14 points

10.7%

ETSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

ETSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MOREHEAD STATE
67
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
70
MOREHEAD STATE
74
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 MORE @ ETSU 62 - 77
Dec 11, 2022 ETSU @ MORE 57 - 61
Dec 11, 2021 MORE @ ETSU 75 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.7% more
East Tennessee State: 3.7 vs Morehead State: 2.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
East Tennessee State: 36.9% vs Morehead State: 32.9%
Assists (L5) +26.6% more
Morehead State: 17.9 vs East Tennessee State: 13.1
Rebounding (L5) +21.5% more
Morehead State: 40.0 vs East Tennessee State: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 64.0 62
ETSU Score 67.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 32.9 13.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.1 / 17.9 12.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 48.1 44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 64.8 / 70.6 76.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 40.0 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 10.6 / 10.0 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.7 9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
MORE
ETSU
MORE
ML
42% 14-19
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
ATS
58% 19-14
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
68% 21-10
TTL
45% 15-18
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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