GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
1-5 | Road
58
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
4-2 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
JACKRABBITS
0%
PANTHERS
--
JACKRABBITS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (South Dakota State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDST -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)
GAST By 1-7 points
0.1%
GAST By 8-14 points
0.0%
SDST By 1-7 points
1.4%
SDST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Georgia State
56
GEORGIA STATE
South Dakota State
85
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
Georgia State
71
GEORGIA STATE
South Dakota State
77
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jackrabbits
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jackrabbits (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
GAST @ SDST
58 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.4% more
South Dakota State: 14.7
vs
Georgia State: 12.0
Rebounding (L5)
+10.1% more
South Dakota State: 42.1
vs
Georgia State: 38.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
South Dakota State: 45.7%
vs
Georgia State: 39.0%
Blocks (L5)
+39.9% more
Georgia State: 3.4
vs
South Dakota State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GAST Score
56.0
58
SDST Score
85.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 35.5
47.0 / 19.0
Assists
14.7 / 12.0
28.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.0 / 3.4
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 39.0
62.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 75.4
77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 38.3
43.0 / 22.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.2
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 14.6
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
SDST
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
GAST
SDST
GAST
ML
75%
24-8
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
ATS
78%
25-7
59%
19-13
53%
17-15
71%
22-9
TTL
53%
17-15
59%
19-13
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
