PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
2-5 | Road
60
SAINT LOUIS
BILLIKENSSLU
5-0 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
MASTODONS
100%
BILLIKENS
0%
MASTODONS
--
BILLIKENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SAINT LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Saint Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SLU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SLU)
PFW By 1-7 points
8.0%
PFW By 8-14 points
2.2%
SLU By 1-7 points
20.1%
SLU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
62
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Saint Louis
74
SAINT LOUIS
Simulated Score
Purdue Fort Wayne
68
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Saint Louis
75
SAINT LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Billikens
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Billikens
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Billikens (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Billikens (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
PFW @ SLU
60 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+69.5% more
Saint Louis: 16.6
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 9.8
Rebounding (L5)
+14.2% more
Saint Louis: 40.7
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 35.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Saint Louis: 39.6%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 33.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Saint Louis: 78.3%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PFW Score
62.0
60
SLU Score
74.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 33.8
42.0 / 21.0
Assists
15.2 / 15.2
19.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.7
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.6 / 49.2
51.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 73.6
94.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
40.7 / 35.6
50.0 / 24.0
Steals
8.3 / 10.8
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 9.8
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
SLU
Advantage
29-6-0
(82.9%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
SLU
Advantage
19-13-2
(59.4%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
SLU
18-16-0
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SLU
PFW
SLU
PFW
ML
70%
23-10
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
74%
23-8
ATS
73%
24-9
62%
20-12
68%
21-10
74%
23-8
TTL
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
