Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Musketeers UGA @ XAV

GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

5-0  |  Road

78
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 9:00 PM ET
TD Arena
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

3-2  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
MUSKETEERS
100%
BULLDOGS --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsUGA (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

18.4%

Musketeers Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around XAV +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

UGA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UGA By 8-14 points

26.8%

XAV By 1-7 points

12.2%

XAV By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
GEORGIA
66
XAVIER
Simulated Score
73
GEORGIA
76
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 UGA @ XAV 78 - 77
Mar 19, 2024 XAV @ UGA 76 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.8% more
Georgia: 9.6 vs Xavier: 3.3
Steals (L5) +27.6% more
Georgia: 11.5 vs Xavier: 8.3
Rebounding (L5) +22.0% more
Georgia: 45.2 vs Xavier: 35.2
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Georgia: 11.8 vs Xavier: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 75.0 78
XAV Score 66.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 22.3 34.0 / 25.0
Assists 19.0 / 15.2 10.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 9.6 0.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 44.7 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 78.0 63.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 45.2 42.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.3 / 11.5 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 11.8 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
UGA
XAV
UGA
ML
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
56% 18-14
ATS
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
72% 23-9
56% 18-14
TTL
39% 13-20
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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