ARKANSAS STATE
RED WOLVESARST
3-1 | Road
69
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
5-0 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
RED WOLVES
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
RED WOLVES
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
ARST By 1-7 points
6.8%
ARST By 8-14 points
1.7%
SMU By 1-7 points
18.6%
SMU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas State
74
ARKANSAS STATE
SMU
87
SMU
Simulated Score
Arkansas State
68
ARKANSAS STATE
SMU
74
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
ARST @ SMU
69 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+131.9% more
SMU: 4.4
vs
Arkansas State: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+28.8% more
SMU: 20.0
vs
Arkansas State: 15.5
Steals (L5)
+25.4% more
SMU: 9.5
vs
Arkansas State: 7.6
Turnovers (L5)
+13.5% more
SMU: 12.4
vs
Arkansas State: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARST Score
74.0
69
SMU Score
87.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 29.1
35.0 / 21.0
Assists
20.0 / 15.5
29.0 / 6.0
Blocks
4.4 / 1.9
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 43.9
55.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 76.1
63.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
40.4 / 36.8
30.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.6
26.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 10.9
8.0 / 32.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
SMU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
ARST
SMU
ARST
ML
59%
20-14
48%
15-16
73%
24-9
53%
16-14
ATS
62%
21-13
58%
18-13
73%
24-9
53%
16-14
TTL
56%
19-15
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
