RIDER
BRONCSRID
1-3 | Road
45
HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
4-0 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCS
100%
COUGARS
0%
BRONCS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
RID By 1-7 points
20.1%
RID By 8-14 points
9.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.4%
HOU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Rider
59
RIDER
Houston
63
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Rider
52
RIDER
Houston
78
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
RID @ HOU
45 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+77.2% more
Houston: 8.2
vs
Rider: 4.7
Assists (L5)
+52.7% more
Houston: 14.9
vs
Rider: 9.8
Blocks (L5)
+40.5% more
Houston: 5.2
vs
Rider: 3.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Houston: 30.1%
vs
Rider: 26.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RID Score
59.0
45
HOU Score
63.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 26.9
38.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.9 / 9.8
23.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.7
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 40.2
56.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 76.2
100.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
40.8 / 39.7
33.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.2 / 4.7
13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 12.5
7.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
RID
HOU
RID
ML
70%
26-11
72%
21-8
68%
23-11
66%
19-10
ATS
70%
26-11
72%
21-8
68%
23-11
66%
19-10
TTL
59%
22-15
62%
18-11
100%
34-0
100%
29-0
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