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BROWN

BEARSBRWN

1-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 6:30 PM ET
Stony Brook Arena
View Odds Details →

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

3-1  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
SEAWOLVES
100%
BEARS --
SEAWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
BROWN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Brown)
BearsBRWN (-3.5) 0 SeawolvesSTBK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

88.5%

Seawolves Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BRWN -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRWN)

BRWN By 1-7 points

20.1%

BRWN By 8-14 points

27.2%

STBK By 1-7 points

8.0%

STBK By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
88
BROWN
76
STONY BROOK
Simulated Score
68
BROWN
72
STONY BROOK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seawolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Seawolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 BRWN @ STBK 70 - 80
Nov 27, 2024 STBK @ BRWN 54 - 77
Dec 29, 2023 BRWN @ STBK 65 - 69
Nov 17, 2022 STBK @ BRWN 53 - 64
Dec 7, 2019 BRWN @ STBK 63 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.4% more
Brown: 6.8 vs Stony Brook: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +19.7% more
Brown: 13.4 vs Stony Brook: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Stony Brook: 39.6% vs Brown: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Stony Brook: 48.6% vs Brown: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRWN Score 88.0 70
STBK Score 76.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 33.2 42.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.8 / 14.8 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.8 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 45.8 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 71.1 70.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 33.1 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.8 / 6.6 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 13.4 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRWN
9-18-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
STBK Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRWN
14-12-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BRWN
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0% Total +/-: +0.3
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STBK
BRWN
STBK
BRWN
ML
61% 19-12
56% 15-12
71% 22-9
67% 18-9
ATS
61% 19-12
59% 16-11
71% 22-9
67% 18-9
TTL
65% 20-11
59% 16-11
100% 31-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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