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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

2-2  |  Road

60
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Food City Center
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TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

4-0  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
VOLUNTEERS
0%
TIGERS --
VOLUNTEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Tennessee)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 VolunteersTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

38.2%

Volunteers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TENN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

TNST By 1-7 points

21.6%

TNST By 8-14 points

10.7%

TENN By 1-7 points

27.2%

TENN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
62
TENNESSEE STATE
65
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
59
TENNESSEE STATE
82
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Volunteers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Volunteers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Volunteers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Volunteers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 TNST @ TENN 60 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +41.1% more
Tennessee: 21.7 vs Tennessee State: 15.4
Rebounding (L5) +8.6% more
Tennessee: 46.2 vs Tennessee State: 42.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Tennessee: 49.6% vs Tennessee State: 45.8%
Steals (L5) +13.6% more
Tennessee State: 8.3 vs Tennessee: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 62.0 60
TENN Score 65.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 34.8 32.0 / 19.0
Assists 21.7 / 15.4 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.3 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 45.8 44.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 77.2 89.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 46.2 / 42.5 38.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.3 12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 14.0 17.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
TENN
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
TNST
TENN
TNST
ML
46% 17-20
52% 16-15
64% 21-12
63% 17-10
ATS
54% 20-17
68% 21-10
64% 21-12
64% 18-10
TTL
76% 28-9
52% 16-15
100% 33-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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