Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Boilermakers MEM @ PUR

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

1-2  |  Road

71
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 6:00 PM ET
Baha Mar Convention Center
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

4-0  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
TIGERS --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Purdue)
TigersMEM (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

3.6%

Boilermakers Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

MEM By 1-7 points

2.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.5%

PUR By 1-7 points

10.7%

PUR By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MEMPHIS
79
PURDUE
Simulated Score
72
MEMPHIS
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u156.0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 MEM @ PUR 71 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.4% more
Purdue: 18.8 vs Memphis: 15.1
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Purdue: 42.9 vs Memphis: 36.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Purdue: 39.4% vs Memphis: 30.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Purdue: 74.9% vs Memphis: 70.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 61.0 71
PUR Score 79.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 30.0 37.0 / 21.0
Assists 18.8 / 15.1 20.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.0 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 43.4 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 70.0 82.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 36.9 37.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.9 / 8.7 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 13.9 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
MEM
PUR
MEM
ML
67% 26-13
62% 20-12
66% 25-13
68% 21-10
ATS
64% 25-14
62% 20-12
66% 25-13
68% 21-10
TTL
51% 20-19
66% 21-11
100% 38-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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