NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTSNE
9-2 | Road
26
CINCINNATI
BENGALSCIN
3-7 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Bryce Baringer
#17 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Ryan Rehkow
#8 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Bryce Baringer | None-None |
| Ryan Rehkow | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
0%
BENGALS
100%
PATRIOTS
--
BENGALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New England)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NE -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)
NE By 1-6 points
15.3%
NE By 7-13 points
19.7%
CIN By 1-6 points
10.7%
CIN By 7-13 points
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New England
31
NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati
21
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
New England
24
NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati
20
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Patriots
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Patriots (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Patriots (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 23, 2025
NE @ CIN
26 - 20
Sep 8, 2024
NE @ CIN
16 - 10
Dec 24, 2022
CIN @ NE
22 - 18
Dec 15, 2019
NE @ CIN
34 - 13
Oct 16, 2016
CIN @ NE
17 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+14.5% more
New England: 115.3
vs
Cincinnati: 98.6
Turnovers (L5)
+80.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.6
vs
New England: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NE Score
31.0
26
CIN Score
21.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.2 / 20.9
20.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards
267.9 / 253.1
187.0 / 285.0
Rushing Yards
98.6 / 115.3
120.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.23 / 0.38
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards
366.5 / 368.4
307.0 / 392.0
Turnovers
1.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
5.8 / 6.0
5.0 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
CIN
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
Advantage
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
CIN
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.0
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -10.0
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
NE
CIN
NE
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
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