Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Ravens NYJ @ BAL

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-8  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 1:00 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

5-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Tyler Loop None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
RAVENS
0%
JETS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Baltimore)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

3.7%

Ravens Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

NYJ By 1-6 points

2.2%

NYJ By 7-13 points

0.9%

BAL By 1-6 points

5.3%

BAL By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
28
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
17
NEW YORK
24
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ravens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ravens Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ravens (-14) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Ravens (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 NYJ @ BAL 10 - 23
Sep 11, 2022 BAL @ NYJ 24 - 9
Dec 12, 2019 NYJ @ BAL 21 - 42
Oct 23, 2016 BAL @ NYJ 16 - 24
Nov 24, 2013 NYJ @ BAL 3 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.0% more
Baltimore: 1.4 vs New York: 1.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +42.7% more
Baltimore: 171.6 vs New York: 120.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.4% more
Baltimore: 333.1 vs New York: 265.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.4% more
Baltimore: 5.6 vs New York: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 3.0 10
BAL Score 28.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 16.0 16.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 171.6 / 120.3 143.0 / 204.0
Rushing Yards 161.5 / 145.3 98.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 333.1 / 265.6 241.0 / 282.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 4.5 4.2 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYJ
BAL
NYJ
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 1 hour, 16 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 19 minutes ago
Ravens' Gamble on Cam Jurgens: A Trade That Demands Two Grades
si 7 hours, 22 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 7 hours, 28 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 13 hours, 41 minutes ago