TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERSTB
6-4 | Road
7
LOS ANGELES
RAMSLAR
8-2 | Home
34
Key Game
KEY GAME
Riley Dixon
#9 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Ethan Evans
#42 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Riley Dixon | None-None |
| Ethan Evans | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
RAMS
0%
BUCCANEERS
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)
TB By 1-6 points
14.7%
TB By 7-13 points
12.1%
LAR By 1-6 points
17.0%
LAR By 7-13 points
18.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
20
TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles
24
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
24
TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rams
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rams
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rams (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Rams (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u49.5
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim
u49.5
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 23, 2025
TB @ LAR
7 - 34
Nov 6, 2022
LAR @ TB
13 - 16
Jan 23, 2022
LAR @ TB
30 - 27
Sep 26, 2021
TB @ LAR
24 - 34
Nov 23, 2020
LAR @ TB
27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+9.8% more
Los Angeles: 22.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 20.0
Turnovers (L5)
+47.7% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1
vs
Los Angeles: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
20.0
7
LAR Score
24.0
34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.0 / 20.0
20.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards
213.9 / 204.4
263.0 / 70.0
Rushing Yards
120.5 / 130.0
70.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.4 / 0.41
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
334.4 / 334.3
333.0 / 193.0
Turnovers
0.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play
5.4 / 5.3
6.1 / 2.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -2.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
LAR
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -2.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
LAR
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -2.0
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
TB
LAR
TB
ML
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
100%
5-0
ATS
50%
2-2
50%
2-2-1
25%
1-3
100%
4-0-1
TTL
50%
2-2
20%
1-4
50%
2-2
20%
1-4
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