Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Cavaliers HOU @ CLE

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

9-3  |  Road

114
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

10-5  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
CAVALIERS
100%
ROCKETS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

93.3%

Cavaliers Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

15.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

25.3%

CLE By 1-7 points

4.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
HOUSTON
110
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
HOUSTON
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 27, 2025 CLE @ HOU 100 - 117
Nov 19, 2025 HOU @ CLE 114 - 104
Jan 25, 2025 HOU @ CLE 135 - 131
Jan 22, 2025 CLE @ HOU 108 - 109
Mar 16, 2024 CLE @ HOU 103 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +13.8% more
Houston: 52.2 vs Cleveland: 45.0
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Houston: 8.8 vs Cleveland: 7.8
Free Throw % (L5) +7.6%
Houston: 79.8% vs Cleveland: 72.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Houston: 41.2% vs Cleveland: 35.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 125.0 114
CLE Score 110.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 41.2 31.0 / 38.0
Assists 26.0 / 23.8 20.0 / 23.0
Blocks 6.5 / 4.7 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 47.5 44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 79.8 63.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 45.0 / 52.2 39.0 / 51.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.8 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 13.2 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
HOU
CLE
HOU
ML
60% 69-46
61% 69-44
56% 55-44
59% 51-35
ATS
67% 75-37-3
62% 70-43
56% 55-44
59% 51-35
TTL
59% 68-47
51% 58-55
100% 99-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Marcus Smart Reveals Why Lakers Let Him Walk: 'They Wanted to Go…
sportingnews 0 minutes ago
Walt Frazier Dubs Anthony Davis 'Street Clothes' as Wizards Debu…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 5 hours, 33 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 5 hours, 41 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 11 hours, 25 minutes ago