Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Sycamores LT @ INST

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

2-1  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

2-2  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
SYCAMORES
0%
BULLDOGS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Indiana State)
BulldogsLT (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

15.9%

Sycamores Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around INST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

LT By 1-7 points

10.7%

LT By 8-14 points

3.3%

INST By 1-7 points

23.0%

INST By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
LOUISIANA TECH
81
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
73
LOUISIANA TECH
76
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sycamores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sycamores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 26, 2025 INST @ LT 73 - 75
Nov 19, 2025 LT @ INST 51 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +26.9% more
Indiana State: 15.8 vs Louisiana Tech: 12.4
Turnovers (L5) +19.8% more
Indiana State: 15.2 vs Louisiana Tech: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Indiana State: 68.3% vs Louisiana Tech: 60.9%
Blocks (L5) +58.8% more
Louisiana Tech: 5.0 vs Indiana State: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 71.0 51
INST Score 81.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 29.8 29.0 / 13.0
Assists 15.8 / 12.4 15.0 / 2.0
Blocks 2.0 / 5.0 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 42.9 33.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 68.3 / 60.9 75.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 45.8 44.0 / 50.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.1 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 12.7 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
LT
INST
LT
ML
66% 21-11
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
ATS
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
72% 23-9
TTL
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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