WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
3-2 | Road
82
BOWLING GREEN
FALCONSBGSU
3-2 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
100%
FALCONS
0%
TRIBE
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Bowling Green)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BGSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)
W&M By 1-7 points
13.7%
W&M By 8-14 points
4.8%
BGSU By 1-7 points
25.3%
BGSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
70
WILLIAM & MARY
Bowling Green
78
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
William & Mary
69
WILLIAM & MARY
Bowling Green
74
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Falcons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Falcons (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
W&M @ BGSU
82 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.3% more
Bowling Green: 13.2
vs
William & Mary: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.2%
Bowling Green: 75.7%
vs
William & Mary: 63.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Bowling Green: 46.6%
vs
William & Mary: 43.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+34.4% more
William & Mary: 16.2
vs
Bowling Green: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
70.0
82
BGSU Score
78.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 32.7
16.0 / 30.0
Assists
12.7 / 16.7
12.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.9
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 43.0
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 63.5
78.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 37.5
34.0 / 35.0
Steals
13.2 / 8.7
12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 16.2
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
BGSU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
BGSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.8
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
W&M
BGSU
W&M
ML
66%
21-11
55%
17-14
56%
18-14
61%
19-12
ATS
72%
23-9
63%
19-11-1
56%
18-14
61%
19-12
TTL
53%
17-15
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
