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VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

4-1  |  Road

90
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Wolstein Center
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND STATE

VIKINGSCLE

2-4  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
VIKINGS
0%
BEACONS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
CLEVELAND STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Cleveland State)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 VikingsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

8.1%

Vikings Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

VAL By 1-7 points

5.8%

VAL By 8-14 points

1.4%

CLE By 1-7 points

16.9%

CLE By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
71
VALPARAISO
85
CLEVELAND STATE
Simulated Score
68
VALPARAISO
72
CLEVELAND STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 VAL @ CLE 90 - 75
Nov 12, 2024 CLE @ VAL 75 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.3% more
Cleveland State: 15.0 vs Valparaiso: 8.8
Assists (L5) +44.3% more
Cleveland State: 16.2 vs Valparaiso: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Cleveland State: 44.2% vs Valparaiso: 37.8%
Blocks (L5) +54.3% more
Valparaiso: 4.2 vs Cleveland State: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 71.0 90
CLE Score 85.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 35.7 24.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.2 / 11.2 9.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.9 / 4.2 1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 37.8 45.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 67.4 / 69.3 83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 37.4 23.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.4 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 8.8 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
CLE
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
CLE
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
CLE
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
VAL
CLE
VAL
ML
52% 17-16
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
ATS
64% 21-12
52% 17-16
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
TTL
52% 17-16
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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