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CHICAGO STATE

COUGARSCHST

0-4  |  Road

54
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Williams Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

3-1  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
100%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
0%
COUGARS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Minnesota)
CougarsCHST (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

38.2%

Golden Gophers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MINN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

CHST By 1-7 points

21.6%

CHST By 8-14 points

10.7%

MINN By 1-7 points

27.2%

MINN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
83
CHICAGO STATE
86
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
55
CHICAGO STATE
78
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Gophers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Golden Gophers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 CHST @ MINN 54 - 66
Dec 22, 2022 CHST @ MINN 55 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +149.6% more
Minnesota: 3.5 vs Chicago State: 1.4
Rebounding (L5) +41.2% more
Minnesota: 40.1 vs Chicago State: 28.4
Assists (L5) +33.2% more
Minnesota: 16.1 vs Chicago State: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Minnesota: 44.2% vs Chicago State: 42.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHST Score 83.0 54
MINN Score 86.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.5 / 31.9 25.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.1 / 12.1 18.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 42.0 37.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 61.7 / 73.9 78.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 28.4 41.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.7 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.0 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHST
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
MINN Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHST Advantage
15-15-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: +0.4
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CHST
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.5
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
CHST
MINN
CHST
ML
48% 16-17
75% 24-8
71% 22-9
73% 22-8
ATS
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
71% 22-9
73% 22-8
TTL
52% 17-16
44% 14-18
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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