Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Toreros GRAM @ USD

GRAMBLING

TIGERSGRAM

3-2  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

3-1  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
📊
TOREROS
100%
TIGERS --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Grambling)
TigersGRAM (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

97.1%

Toreros Cover

2.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GRAM -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

GRAM By 1-7 points

9.3%

GRAM By 8-14 points

20.1%

USD By 1-7 points

2.2%

USD By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
84
GRAMBLING
65
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
68
GRAMBLING
76
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 GRAM @ USD 68 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.8% more
Grambling: 15.9 vs San Diego: 13.1
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
Grambling: 5.1 vs San Diego: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Grambling: 74.2% vs San Diego: 67.8%
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
San Diego: 15.8 vs Grambling: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 84.0 68
USD Score 65.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.6 / 39.4 29.0 / 15.0
Assists 15.8 / 13.5 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.4 / 5.1 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 47.9 36.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.8 / 74.2 97.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 29.8 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.6 / 8.5 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 15.9 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
USD
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -4.0
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
GRAM
USD
GRAM
ML
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
70% 23-10
68% 17-8
ATS
55% 18-15
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
68% 17-8
TTL
61% 20-13
58% 18-13
100% 33-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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