ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
GOLDEN LIONSUAPB
0-5 | Road
60
SMU
MUSTANGSSMU
4-0 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
GOLDEN LIONS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
UAPB By 1-7 points
23.0%
UAPB By 8-14 points
12.2%
SMU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SMU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
87
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
SMU
89
SMU
Simulated Score
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
59
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
SMU
88
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
UAPB @ SMU
60 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+58.2% more
SMU: 9.2
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+54.2% more
SMU: 3.6
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+41.8% more
SMU: 16.5
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 11.6
Rebounding (L5)
+20.3% more
SMU: 38.1
vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score
87.0
60
SMU Score
89.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 33.8
44.0 / 15.0
Assists
16.5 / 11.6
27.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.6 / 2.4
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 40.1
57.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 77.7
77.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 31.6
45.0 / 32.0
Steals
9.2 / 5.8
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 14.3
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB
13-19-0
(40.6%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
SMU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB
Advantage
13-16-1
(44.8%)
Margin: -3.8
ATS +/-: +1.1
SMU
14-19-1
(42.4%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
UAPB
SMU
UAPB
ML
59%
20-14
74%
23-8
73%
24-9
73%
19-7
ATS
62%
21-13
73%
22-8-1
73%
24-9
73%
19-7
TTL
56%
19-15
68%
21-10
100%
33-0
100%
26-0
