Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Razorbacks WIN @ ARK

WINTHROP

EAGLESWIN

2-2  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Bud Walton Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

3-1  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
RAZORBACKS
0%
EAGLES --
RAZORBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Arkansas)
EaglesWIN (-3.5) 0 RazorbacksARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

0.0%

Razorbacks Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

WIN By 1-7 points

0.0%

WIN By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARK By 1-7 points

0.1%

ARK By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
36
WINTHROP
76
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
65
WINTHROP
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Razorbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Razorbacks (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Razorbacks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 WIN @ ARK 83 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +64.2% more
Arkansas: 4.0 vs Winthrop: 2.5
Assists (L5) +27.9% more
Arkansas: 15.1 vs Winthrop: 11.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.2% more
Arkansas: 40.6 vs Winthrop: 36.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.1%
Arkansas: 77.7% vs Winthrop: 68.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIN Score 36.0 83
ARK Score 76.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 37.6 35.0 / 47.0
Assists 15.1 / 11.8 13.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.5 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 45.0 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 68.6 91.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 36.5 33.0 / 30.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.6 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 9.9 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIN
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIN
12-19-0 (38.7%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -1.0
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WIN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
WIN
ARK
WIN
ML
68% 25-12
70% 23-10
81% 25-6
79% 26-7
ATS
70% 26-11
79% 26-7
81% 25-6
79% 26-7
TTL
57% 21-16
58% 19-14
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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