MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
4-10 | Road
101
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
9-4 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
SPURS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
MEM By 1-7 points
4.0%
MEM By 8-14 points
0.8%
SA By 1-7 points
13.7%
SA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
109
MEMPHIS
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Memphis
105
MEMPHIS
San Antonio
112
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-6)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim
u234.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
SA @ MEM
123 - 98
Jan 6, 2026
SA @ MEM
105 - 106
Dec 2, 2025
MEM @ SA
119 - 126
Nov 18, 2025
MEM @ SA
101 - 111
Mar 1, 2025
SA @ MEM
130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
San Antonio: 31.0
vs
Memphis: 25.1
Turnovers (L5)
+16.3% more
San Antonio: 16.9
vs
Memphis: 14.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.9%
San Antonio: 50.5%
vs
Memphis: 39.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
San Antonio: 82.3%
vs
Memphis: 75.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
109.0
101
SA Score
125.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.0 / 30.4
38.0 / 31.0
Assists
31.0 / 25.1
23.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.6 / 4.3
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 39.7
48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
82.3 / 75.5
85.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
44.7 / 43.3
38.0 / 59.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.5
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.9 / 14.5
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
MEM
SA
MEM
ML
60%
111-73
57%
59-44
58%
61-44
50%
41-41
ATS
58%
107-76-1
63%
65-38
58%
61-44
50%
41-41
TTL
74%
134-47-3
70%
71-31-1
100%
105-0
100%
82-0
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