Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Midshipmen @ Tar Heels NAVY @ UNC

NAVY

MIDSHIPMENNAVY

2-3  |  Road

61
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Dean E. Smith Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

5-0  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MIDSHIPMEN
100%
📊
TAR HEELS
0%
MIDSHIPMEN --
TAR HEELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Carolina)
MidshipmenNAVY (-3.5) 0 Tar HeelsUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Midshipmen Cover

27.4%

Tar Heels Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

NAVY By 1-7 points

16.9%

NAVY By 8-14 points

6.8%

UNC By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNC By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
NAVY
72
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
65
NAVY
82
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tar Heels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Tar Heels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 NAVY @ UNC 61 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +243.1% more
North Carolina: 6.8 vs Navy: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +32.6% more
North Carolina: 46.6 vs Navy: 35.2
Steals (L5) +31.1% more
Navy: 8.5 vs North Carolina: 5.9
Turnovers (L5) +23.4% more
Navy: 13.8 vs North Carolina: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 66.0 61
UNC Score 72.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 35.9 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 18.1 / 17.3 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 6.8 / 2.0 7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 50.2 43.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 78.8 77.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 35.2 45.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.9 / 8.5 4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.8 13.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY Advantage
26-8-0 (76.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
UNC
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY Advantage
20-11-1 (64.5%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +3.7
UNC
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.3
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
NAVY
UNC
NAVY
ML
76% 25-8
79% 26-7
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
ATS
73% 24-9
73% 24-9
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
TTL
55% 18-15
73% 24-9
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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