Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Dukes TOW @ JMU

TOWSON

TIGERSTOW

3-1  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Atlantic Union Bank Center
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

DUKESJMU

2-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
DUKES
0%
TIGERS --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (James Madison)
TigersTOW (-3.5) 0 DukesJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

24.2%

Dukes Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JMU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

TOW By 1-7 points

15.3%

TOW By 8-14 points

5.8%

JMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

JMU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
TOWSON
82
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
68
TOWSON
72
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dukes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 TOW @ JMU 75 - 81
Nov 16, 2024 JMU @ TOW 63 - 67
Feb 26, 2022 TOW @ JMU 95 - 59
Feb 23, 2022 JMU @ TOW 65 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +38.7% more
James Madison: 12.8 vs Towson: 9.2
Blocks (L5) +17.4% more
James Madison: 4.9 vs Towson: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
James Madison: 12.6 vs Towson: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
James Madison: 36.1% vs Towson: 25.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOW Score 75.0 75
JMU Score 82.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 25.3 50.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.8 / 9.2 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.1 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 38.3 57.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 62.2 81.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 41.0 23.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.7 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 10.8 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
JMU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW Advantage
14-17-1 (45.2%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.8
JMU
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.5
JMU
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
TOW
JMU
TOW
ML
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
ATS
67% 22-11
66% 21-11
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
TTL
67% 22-11
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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