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SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

3-2  |  Road

48
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 10:30 PM ET
Pauley Pavilion
View Odds Details →

UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

3-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BRUINS
0%
HORNETS --
BRUINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (UCLA)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 BruinsUCLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

30.9%

Bruins Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCLA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

SAC By 1-7 points

18.6%

SAC By 8-14 points

8.0%

UCLA By 1-7 points

27.2%

UCLA By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SACRAMENTO STATE
83
UCLA
Simulated Score
58
SACRAMENTO STATE
75
UCLA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bruins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Bruins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 SAC @ UCLA 48 - 79
Nov 7, 2022 SAC @ UCLA 50 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.6% more
UCLA: 16.4 vs Sacramento State: 14.2
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
UCLA: 6.4 vs Sacramento State: 5.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
UCLA: 39.0% vs Sacramento State: 31.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.7%
UCLA: 77.0% vs Sacramento State: 73.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 78.0 48
UCLA Score 83.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 31.6 33.0 / 13.0
Assists 16.4 / 14.2 20.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 46.3 48.0 / 24.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 73.3 67.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 36.3 44.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.4 / 5.6 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 14.4 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
UCLA Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
UCLA Advantage
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
SAC
UCLA
SAC
ML
67% 24-12
57% 17-13
76% 25-8
87% 26-4
ATS
61% 22-14
73% 22-8
76% 25-8
87% 27-4
TTL
61% 22-14
60% 18-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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