ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
6-9-4 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
8-9-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jordan Binnington
#50 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington | None-None | 2.81 | 0.897 | -- |
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.81
GAA
--
0.897
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUES
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
BLUES
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
STL By 1 goal
6.6%
STL By 2-3 goals
3.7%
TOR By 1 goal
17.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
1
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
2
ST. LOUIS
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
TOR @ STL
1 - 5
Nov 18, 2025
STL @ TOR
2 - 3
Nov 2, 2024
TOR @ STL
2 - 4
Oct 24, 2024
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Feb 19, 2024
TOR @ STL
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.4% more
Toronto: 26.6
vs
St. Louis: 22.6
Hits (L5)
+13.7% more
Toronto: 26.3
vs
St. Louis: 23.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.8%
Toronto: 61.4%
vs
St. Louis: 51.6%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+15.5% more
St. Louis: 15.9
vs
Toronto: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
1.0
2
TOR Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.4 / 15.9
16.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
61.4 / 51.6
46.6 / 53.4
Hits
26.3 / 23.1
21.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
10.0 / 15.0
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
26.6 / 22.6
29.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
4.4 / 4.3
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
STL
TOR
STL
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
50%
1-1-1
75%
3-1
50%
1-1-1
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