Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rutgers @ Ohio State RUTG @ OSU

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

5-5  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

10-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Jakob Anderson None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RUTGERS
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
RUTGERS --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Ohio State)
RutgersRUTG (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rutgers Cover

2.3%

Ohio State Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

RUTG By 1-6 points

1.4%

RUTG By 7-13 points

0.5%

OSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

OSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10
RUTGERS
38
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
10
RUTGERS
45
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 RUTG @ OSU 9 - 42
Nov 4, 2023 OSU @ RUTG 35 - 16
Oct 1, 2022 RUTG @ OSU 10 - 49
Oct 2, 2021 OSU @ RUTG 52 - 13
Nov 7, 2020 RUTG @ OSU 27 - 49
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +12.6% more
Ohio State: 25.0 vs Rutgers: 22.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs Rutgers: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +62.7% more
Rutgers: 1.3 vs Ohio State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score 10.0 9
OSU Score 38.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.0 / 22.2 25.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 174.3 / 163.0 254.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 449.2 / 419.1 430.0 / 147.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
RUTG
OSU
RUTG
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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