Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Toledo BALL @ TOL

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

4-6  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 2:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

6-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Tate Hoover
KEY GAME

Tate Hoover

#24 | Tight End
@
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
Player
Tate Hoover None-None
Emilio Duran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
100%
📊
TOLEDO
0%
BALL STATE --
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Toledo)
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 ToledoTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

0.1%

Toledo Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOL -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

BALL By 1-6 points

0.1%

BALL By 7-13 points

0.0%

TOL By 1-6 points

0.4%

TOL By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
BALL STATE
42
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
17
BALL STATE
31
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 TOL @ BALL 39 - 24
Nov 22, 2025 BALL @ TOL 9 - 38
Oct 14, 2023 TOL @ BALL 13 - 6
Nov 8, 2022 BALL @ TOL 21 - 28
Sep 25, 2021 TOL @ BALL 22 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +51.8% more
Toledo: 388.2 vs Ball State: 255.8
First Downs (L5) +40.7% more
Toledo: 19.8 vs Ball State: 14.1
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
Toledo: 1.4 vs Ball State: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Toledo: 0.5 vs Ball State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 0.0 9
TOL Score 42.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 14.1 19.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 142.8 / 133.1 186.0 / 106.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.37
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 388.2 / 255.8 404.0 / 335.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
BALL
TOL
BALL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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