Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ Louisiana Tech LIB @ LT

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

4-6  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:00 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

5-5  |  Home

34
Key Game
Markus Clark
KEY GAME

Markus Clark

#15 | Defensive Lineman
@
Kaegan Kent
KEY GAME

Kaegan Kent

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Markus Clark None-None
Kaegan Kent None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
0%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
100%
LIBERTY --
LOUISIANA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Liberty)
LibertyLIB (-3.5) 0 Louisiana TechLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

76.2%

Louisiana Tech Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LIB -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

LIB By 1-6 points

15.3%

LIB By 7-13 points

19.7%

LT By 1-6 points

10.7%

LT By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
LIBERTY
21
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
38
LIBERTY
20
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Liberty Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Liberty Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Liberty (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Liberty (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 LIB @ LT 28 - 34
Nov 4, 2023 LT @ LIB 30 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
Liberty: 1.7 vs Louisiana Tech: 1.3
Total Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Liberty: 392.2 vs Louisiana Tech: 330.8
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Liberty: 22.1 vs Louisiana Tech: 18.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Liberty: 183.7 vs Louisiana Tech: 165.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 31.0 28
LT Score 21.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 22.1 26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 165.5 / 183.7 319.0 / 283.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 330.8 / 392.2 437.0 / 424.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
LT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
LIB
LT
LIB
ML
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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