Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ UTSA ECU @ UTSA

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

7-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

5-5  |  Home

58
Key Game
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
0%
📊
UTSA
100%
EAST CAROLINA --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
80.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (East Carolina)
East CarolinaECU (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

76.2%

UTSA Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ECU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-6 points

15.3%

ECU By 7-13 points

19.7%

UTSA By 1-6 points

10.7%

UTSA By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
45
EAST CAROLINA
35
UTSA
Simulated Score
24
EAST CAROLINA
31
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI East Carolina Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI East Carolina (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim UTSA (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 80.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 ECU @ UTSA 24 - 58
Sep 28, 2024 UTSA @ ECU 20 - 30
Oct 28, 2023 ECU @ UTSA 27 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.4% more
East Carolina: 193.3 vs UTSA: 161.6
Turnovers (L5) +50.5% more
UTSA: 1.6 vs East Carolina: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 45.0 24
UTSA Score 35.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 25.6 27.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 161.6 / 193.3 210.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 446.7 / 470.2 458.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
ECU
UTSA
ECU
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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