Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ South Alabama USM @ USA

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

7-3  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

3-7  |  Home

42
Key Game
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Reed Harradine None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
0%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
100%
SOUTHERN MISS --
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Southern Miss)
Southern MissUSM (-3.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

71.6%

South Alabama Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USM -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-6 points

16.1%

USM By 7-13 points

19.5%

USA By 1-6 points

12.2%

USA By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
38
SOUTHERN MISS
30
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
20
SOUTHERN MISS
31
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim South Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 68.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 USM @ USA 35 - 42
Nov 23, 2024 USA @ USM 35 - 14
Oct 17, 2023 USM @ USA 3 - 55
Nov 19, 2022 USA @ USM 27 - 20
Sep 4, 2021 USM @ USA 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.1% more
Southern Miss: 1.8 vs South Alabama: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +12.5% more
Southern Miss: 429.2 vs South Alabama: 375.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.5% more
South Alabama: 190.3 vs Southern Miss: 154.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 38.0 35
USA Score 30.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 20.7 26.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 190.3 / 154.1 263.0 / 41.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 375.6 / 429.2 449.0 / 441.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
USM
USA
USM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Delaware Opens CUSA Play Without Starting QB Nick Minicucci Agai…
yahoo 5 days, 23 hours ago
At 83, Fred Fusaro Returns to Huntington to Coach Football After…
headtopics 6 days, 18 hours ago
Bills Coach Joe Brady Pushes for Increased Role for Ray Davis Am…
si 1 week, 1 day ago
Mike Elko's Unwavering Commitment to Marcel Reed Raises Concerns…
victoriaadvocate 1 week, 1 day ago