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JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

7-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

5-5  |  Home

27
Key Game
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
@
Maguire Anderson
KEY GAME

Maguire Anderson

#2 | Wide Receiver
Player
Conor Donaghy None-None
Maguire Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAX STATE
0%
📊
FIU
100%
JAX STATE --
FIU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Jax StateJXST (-3.5) 0 FIUFIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jax State Cover

61.2%

FIU Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JXST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

JXST By 1-6 points

17.0%

JXST By 7-13 points

18.0%

FIU By 1-6 points

14.7%

FIU By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
38
JACKSONVILLE STATE
34
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
24
JACKSONVILLE STATE
28
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jax State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim FIU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jax State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim FIU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 JXST @ FIU 21 - 27
Nov 16, 2024 FIU @ JXST 31 - 34
Oct 25, 2023 JXST @ FIU 41 - 16
Oct 23, 2020 JXST @ FIU 19 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Jacksonville State: 250.4 vs Florida International: 164.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.9% more
Jacksonville State: 431.3 vs Florida International: 393.1
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Florida International: 1.1 vs Jacksonville State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JXST Score 38.0 21
FIU Score 34.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 20.7 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 164.8 / 250.4 202.0 / 251.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 393.1 / 431.3 398.0 / 449.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
JXST
FIU
JXST
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 6-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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