Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan St @ Iowa MSU @ IOWA

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-7  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

6-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Rhys Dakin
KEY GAME

Rhys Dakin

#9 | Punter
@
Bryce Hawthorne
KEY GAME

Bryce Hawthorne

#96 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Rhys Dakin None-None
Bryce Hawthorne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
100%
📊
IOWA
0%
MICHIGAN ST --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Iowa)
Michigan StMSU (-3.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

11.2%

Iowa Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

MSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

MSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

IOWA By 1-6 points

10.7%

IOWA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MICHIGAN STATE
24
IOWA
Simulated Score
13
MICHIGAN STATE
20
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Iowa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 MSU @ IOWA 17 - 20
Oct 19, 2024 IOWA @ MSU 20 - 32
Sep 30, 2023 MSU @ IOWA 16 - 26
Nov 7, 2020 MSU @ IOWA 7 - 49
Sep 30, 2017 IOWA @ MSU 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.2% more
Iowa: 161.0 vs Michigan State: 114.0
Turnovers (L5) +33.0% more
Iowa: 1.1 vs Michigan State: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Iowa: 0.4 vs Michigan State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +8.1% more
Michigan State: 320.1 vs Iowa: 294.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 7.0 17
IOWA Score 24.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 16.6 16.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 161.0 / 114.0 154.0 / 80.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.1 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 294.2 / 320.1 301.0 / 335.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
IOWA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
IOWA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
MSU
IOWA
MSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3-1
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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