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USC

USCUSC

8-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

9-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
@
Devon Jackson
KEY GAME

Devon Jackson

#9 | Linebacker
Player
Ryon Sayeri None-None
Devon Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
USC --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oregon)
USCUSC (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

USC Cover

30.9%

Oregon Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

USC By 1-6 points

12.9%

USC By 7-13 points

9.6%

ORE By 1-6 points

16.5%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17
USC
24
OREGON
Simulated Score
38
USC
35
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim USC Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim USC (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 73.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 ORE @ USC 41 - 27
Nov 22, 2025 USC @ ORE 27 - 42
Nov 11, 2023 USC @ ORE 27 - 36
Dec 18, 2020 ORE @ USC 31 - 24
Nov 2, 2019 ORE @ USC 56 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.7% more
Oregon: 221.7 vs USC: 151.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Oregon: 456.5 vs USC: 416.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 17.0 27
ORE Score 24.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 22.7 26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 221.7 / 151.1 179.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 456.5 / 416.7 436.0 / 382.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
ORE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
USC
ORE
USC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 6-0
50% 2-2
83% 5-1
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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