Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas @ Texas ARK @ TEX

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-8  |  Road

37
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 3:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

7-3  |  Home

52
Key Game
Wyatt Simmons
KEY GAME

Wyatt Simmons

#10 | Linebacker
@
Ryan Niblett
KEY GAME

Ryan Niblett

#21 | Running Back
Player
Wyatt Simmons None-None
Ryan Niblett None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
0%
📊
TEXAS
100%
ARKANSAS --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Arkansas)
ArkansasARK (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas Cover

78.4%

Texas Cover

21.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARK -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

ARK By 1-6 points

14.7%

ARK By 7-13 points

19.7%

TEX By 1-6 points

10.0%

TEX By 7-13 points

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
45
ARKANSAS
34
TEXAS
Simulated Score
24
ARKANSAS
31
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arkansas Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arkansas (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 79.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 ARK @ TEX 37 - 52
Nov 16, 2024 TEX @ ARK 20 - 10
Sep 11, 2021 TEX @ ARK 21 - 40
Dec 29, 2014 ARK @ TEX 31 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +68.1% more
Arkansas: 2.0 vs Texas: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +60.7% more
Arkansas: 188.5 vs Texas: 74.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.4% more
Arkansas: 405.1 vs Texas: 342.7
First Downs (L5) +12.1% more
Arkansas: 20.3 vs Texas: 17.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 45.0 37
TEX Score 34.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 20.3 22.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 74.1 / 188.5 97.0 / 188.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 342.7 / 405.1 490.0 / 512.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
TEX Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
ARK
TEX
ARK
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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