MICHIGAN
MICHIGANMICH
8-2 | Road
45
MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
4-6 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng
#12 | Linebacker@
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng | None-None |
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
0%
MARYLAND
100%
MICHIGAN
--
MARYLAND
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MICH -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
MICH By 1-6 points
0.7%
MICH By 7-13 points
2.4%
MD By 1-6 points
0.2%
MD By 7-13 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
42
MICHIGAN
Maryland
3
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Michigan
31
MICHIGAN
Maryland
17
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Michigan
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Michigan
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Michigan (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
C
Sim
Michigan (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
MICH @ MD
45 - 20
Nov 18, 2023
MICH @ MD
31 - 24
Sep 24, 2022
MD @ MICH
27 - 34
Nov 20, 2021
MICH @ MD
59 - 18
Nov 2, 2019
MICH @ MD
38 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+45.3% more
Michigan: 224.3
vs
Maryland: 122.6
Turnovers (L5)
+34.8% more
Michigan: 2.5
vs
Maryland: 1.6
First Downs (L5)
+26.5% more
Michigan: 21.7
vs
Maryland: 16.0
Total Yards (L5)
+22.1% more
Michigan: 424.4
vs
Maryland: 330.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
42.0
45
MD Score
3.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.0 / 21.7
21.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards
122.6 / 224.3
71.0 / 228.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.5
0.36 / 0.86
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards
330.7 / 424.4
347.0 / 443.0
Turnovers
1.6 / 2.5
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
MD
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -6.3
MD
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -5.9
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
MICH
MD
MICH
ML
60%
3-2
60%
3-2
40%
2-3
100%
5-0
ATS
0%
0-5
80%
4-1
0%
0-5
80%
4-1
TTL
60%
3-2
20%
1-4
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
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