Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia St @ Troy GAST @ TROY

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-9  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 4:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

6-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
Deandre Duffus
KEY GAME

Deandre Duffus

#56 | Offensive Lineman
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Deandre Duffus None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
100%
📊
TROY
0%
GEORGIA ST --
TROY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Troy)
Georgia StGAST (-3.5) 0 TroyTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

30.9%

Troy Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

GAST By 1-6 points

12.9%

GAST By 7-13 points

9.6%

TROY By 1-6 points

16.5%

TROY By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
GEORGIA STATE
31
TROY
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA STATE
31
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Troy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 GAST @ TROY 19 - 31
Sep 30, 2023 TROY @ GAST 28 - 7
Nov 27, 2021 TROY @ GAST 10 - 37
Oct 24, 2020 GAST @ TROY 36 - 34
Oct 26, 2019 TROY @ GAST 33 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.1% more
Georgia State: 143.2 vs Troy: 71.5
Total Yards (L5) +39.6% more
Georgia State: 407.3 vs Troy: 246.0
First Downs (L5) +33.4% more
Georgia State: 21.3 vs Troy: 14.2
Turnovers (L5) +27.7% more
Georgia State: 2.1 vs Troy: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 24.0 19
TROY Score 31.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.2 / 21.3 19.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 71.5 / 143.2 62.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 246.0 / 407.3 423.0 / 516.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
GAST
TROY
GAST
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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