Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas St @ Utah KSU @ UTAH

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

5-5  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 4:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

8-2  |  Home

51
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
100%
📊
UTAH
0%
KANSAS ST --
UTAH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Utah)
Kansas StKSU (-3.5) 0 UtahUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

2.3%

Utah Cover

97.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

KSU By 1-6 points

1.4%

KSU By 7-13 points

0.5%

UTAH By 1-6 points

3.8%

UTAH By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17
KANSAS STATE
45
UTAH
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS STATE
28
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Utah (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 KSU @ UTAH 47 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +138.7% more
Utah: 316.3 vs Kansas State: 132.5
First Downs (L5) +51.9% more
Utah: 24.0 vs Kansas State: 15.8
Total Yards (L5) +44.5% more
Utah: 485.0 vs Kansas State: 335.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs Kansas State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 17.0 47
UTAH Score 45.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 15.8 32.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 316.3 / 132.5 292.0 / 472.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 485.0 / 335.6 551.0 / 574.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
KSU
UTAH
KSU
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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