Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ Georgia Tech PITT @ GT

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

7-3  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

9-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
Adam Howanitz
KEY GAME

Adam Howanitz

#44 | Tight End
@
Aidan Birr
KEY GAME

Aidan Birr

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Adam Howanitz None-None
Aidan Birr None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
100%
📊
GEORGIA TECH
0%
PITT --
GEORGIA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Georgia Tech)
PittPITT (-3.5) 0 Georgia TechGT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

30.9%

Georgia Tech Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GT -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

PITT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PITT By 7-13 points

9.6%

GT By 1-6 points

16.5%

GT By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31
PITTSBURGH
38
GEORGIA TECH
Simulated Score
24
PITTSBURGH
27
GEORGIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia Tech Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia Tech Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia Tech (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Georgia Tech (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 PITT @ GT 42 - 28
Oct 1, 2022 GT @ PITT 26 - 21
Oct 2, 2021 PITT @ GT 52 - 21
Dec 10, 2020 PITT @ GT 34 - 20
Nov 2, 2019 PITT @ GT 20 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +92.3% more
Georgia Tech: 217.3 vs Pittsburgh: 113.0
Total Yards (L5) +47.8% more
Georgia Tech: 541.8 vs Pittsburgh: 366.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +31.0% more
Georgia Tech: 0.6 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +27.9% more
Georgia Tech: 27.6 vs Pittsburgh: 21.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 31.0 42
GT Score 38.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.6 / 21.6 21.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 217.3 / 113.0 121.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.21 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 541.8 / 366.7 378.0 / 412.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
GT
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -7.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
GT
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -7.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
GT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
PITT
GT
PITT
ML
25% 1-3
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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