Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ Air Force UNM @ AFA

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

7-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

3-7  |  Home

3
Key Game
Deshaun Buchanan
KEY GAME

Deshaun Buchanan

#8 | Running Back
@
Chaz Barnett
KEY GAME

Chaz Barnett

#59 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Deshaun Buchanan None-None
Chaz Barnett None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
0%
📊
AIR FORCE
100%
NEW MEXICO --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico)
New MexicoUNM (-3.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

69.1%

Air Force Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-6 points

16.5%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.3%

AFA By 1-6 points

12.9%

AFA By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW MEXICO
13
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
10
NEW MEXICO
31
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI New Mexico (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Air Force (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 UNM @ AFA 20 - 3
Oct 12, 2024 AFA @ UNM 37 - 52
Nov 12, 2022 UNM @ AFA 3 - 35
Oct 2, 2021 AFA @ UNM 38 - 10
Nov 20, 2020 UNM @ AFA 0 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.5% more
New Mexico: 2.2 vs Air Force: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.5% more
Air Force: 272.5 vs New Mexico: 148.5
First Downs (L5) +26.2% more
Air Force: 22.6 vs New Mexico: 17.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs New Mexico: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 20.0 20
AFA Score 13.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 17.9 14.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 272.5 / 148.5 110.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 371.4 / 401.1 161.0 / 277.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
AFA
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
UNM
AFA
UNM
ML
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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