Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Rice UNT @ RICE

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

9-1  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Nov 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Rice Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

5-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Victor Aderungboye
KEY GAME

Victor Aderungboye

#88 | Tight End
@
Enock Gota
KEY GAME

Enock Gota

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Victor Aderungboye None-None
Enock Gota None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
0%
📊
RICE
100%
NORTH TEXAS --
RICE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-62.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +62.0 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 RiceRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

100.0%

Rice Cover

0.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNT -62.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

0.0%

UNT By 7-13 points

0.0%

RICE By 1-6 points

0.0%

RICE By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
62
NORTH TEXAS
0
RICE
Simulated Score
24
NORTH TEXAS
27
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Rice Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Texas (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -62.0
C
Sim Rice (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 22, 2025 UNT @ RICE 56 - 24
Nov 26, 2022 RICE @ UNT 17 - 21
Oct 30, 2021 UNT @ RICE 30 - 24
Nov 21, 2020 RICE @ UNT 17 - 27
Nov 23, 2019 UNT @ RICE 14 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +44.5% more
North Texas: 519.6 vs Rice: 288.6
First Downs (L5) +33.6% more
North Texas: 25.0 vs Rice: 16.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
North Texas: 0.5 vs Rice: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Rice: 1.0 vs North Texas: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 62.0 56
RICE Score 0.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 25.0 24.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 191.3 / 191.7 296.0 / 171.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 288.6 / 519.6 397.0 / 640.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
RICE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
UNT
RICE
UNT
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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