Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Bowling Green AKR @ BGSU

AKRON

AKRONAKR

4-7  |  Road

19
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

3-7  |  Home

16
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Brennan Ridley
KEY GAME

Brennan Ridley

#5 | Wide Receiver
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Brennan Ridley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
0%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
100%
AKRON --
BOWLING GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Akron)
AkronAKR (-3.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

96.8%

Bowling Green Cover

3.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around AKR -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

AKR By 1-6 points

4.8%

AKR By 7-13 points

10.4%

BGSU By 1-6 points

1.9%

BGSU By 7-13 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26
AKRON
0
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
20
AKRON
27
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Bowling Green Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Akron (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
B
Sim Bowling Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 AKR @ BGSU 19 - 16
Oct 5, 2024 BGSU @ AKR 27 - 20
Oct 21, 2023 AKR @ BGSU 14 - 41
Oct 1, 2022 BGSU @ AKR 31 - 28
Oct 9, 2021 AKR @ BGSU 35 - 20
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +37.4% more
Akron: 25.1 vs Bowling Green: 15.7
Total Yards (L5) +35.2% more
Akron: 433.2 vs Bowling Green: 280.5
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Akron: 1.7 vs Bowling Green: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 26.0 19
BGSU Score 0.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 25.1 15.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 140.1 / 137.8 134.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 280.5 / 433.2 272.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
AKR
BGSU
AKR
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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