Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Timberwolves DAL @ MIN

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

4-10  |  Road

96
FINAL
Mon, Nov 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

8-5  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
MAVERICKS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
200.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Minnesota)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

1.4%

Timberwolves Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

DAL By 1-7 points

1.1%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.1%

MIN By 1-7 points

5.8%

MIN By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
89
DALLAS
111
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
108
DALLAS
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (-14) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 200.0
D
Sim u232.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 MIN @ DAL 124 - 94
Feb 20, 2026 DAL @ MIN 111 - 122
Jan 28, 2026 MIN @ DAL 118 - 105
Nov 17, 2025 DAL @ MIN 96 - 120
Jan 22, 2025 MIN @ DAL 115 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.2%
Minnesota: 80.5% vs Dallas: 69.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.2%
Minnesota: 49.3% vs Dallas: 47.1%
Blocks (L5) +29.2% more
Dallas: 7.9 vs Minnesota: 5.6
Turnovers (L5) +21.2% more
Dallas: 17.9 vs Minnesota: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 89.0 96
MIN Score 111.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 34.2 32.0 / 30.0
Assists 25.6 / 26.6 27.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.6 / 7.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 47.1 45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 80.5 / 69.2 72.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 42.8 / 46.9 59.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.8 / 9.0 16.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 17.9 17.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DAL
MIN
DAL
ML
54% 63-53
62% 63-39
54% 50-43
54% 44-37
ATS
58% 67-49
67% 68-34
54% 50-43
54% 44-37
TTL
63% 72-43-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 93-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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